A Simple Climate Model of Earth’s Surface Temperature Response to GHG Emissions

Abstract

A simple dynamical model relating Earth's expected surface temperature anomaly to CO2 emissions will be presented. The obvious constraints and limitations aside, such a dynamical model enables a variety of emissions scenarios to be explored. Results are compared against findings in the IPCC AR5 and SR15 reports and we reflect on possible pathways ahead.

About the speaker

Mark Titchener MS (Phys), PhD (Elect. Eng.) is a retired scientist/engineer. His has been a varied career with experience ranging from electron microscopy to stratospheric chemistry, electronics, computing, and software, holding positions at SPRL, U. of Michigan (1977); Div. of Applied Sciences, Harvard (1978-81); Dept of Elect. Eng, Vict. U. Manchester(1988); Angewandte Physik, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt a. M.(1989); Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (2000); Informatik, TU, Berlin (2008); and lectureships at U. of Canterbury (1982) and Auckland (1993-2018). Early work involving the development of microprocessor based experiment control, data acquisition and telemetry systems, and the miniaturising of ground-support equipment for balloon borne experiments shaped his evolving interests. For example, Mark's discovery of a novel class of self-synchronizable codes became the focus of his PhD (1984). His subsequent reinterpretation of the fractal code construction resulted in deterministic formulations of computable complexity and information measures that have found application across a range of disciplines. In 2008 Mark became a senior researcher with the UoA Bioengineering Institute, carrying out medical time-series analysis for F&P Healthcare. Software tools developed in this work provide the basis for his current interest in an informal exploration of the climate challenges ahead.