Engineers for Social Responsibility Inc. is an independent group of engineers who consider that being knowledgeable in the field of technology means that they also have a special obligation to the public at large. This includes raising the awareness of the engineering profession to the consequences of its activities and explaining to and discussing with the public the ramifications of developments in engineering and engineering works.
The Sustainable Energy Forum (SEF) is a group of individuals and corporate organisations promoting information and supporting action which will help move New Zealand towards a sustainable energy future.
While our organisations can understand the Government wish to improve the national economy in the face of the present economic downturn, we are particularly concerned that the proposed GPS statement does not recognise the changes that are already happening. These changes are likely to bring about significant modifications to the way goods and people move about in the future. The Government needs to consider the effects of these changes much more thoroughly before launching into a plan for the future of land transport.
1 Employment – We can understand the Government’s wish to create employment and improve infrastructure, but roading is not the only sector of the economy that should be stimulated to create employment and provide future economic benefits.
2 Continued Reliance on Liquid Fuels – The declining availability of oil has been well documented. In its World Energy Outlook 2008, the International Energy Agency warns of a growing world oil supply crunch from 2010 onwards. Projected decline rates of over 8% in production from existing oil fields will create increasing difficulties in maintaining even current levels of world oil production in the 2010-2030 period. Oil prices have declined in the wake of the present economic crisis, but it would be irresponsible to think that with growing shortages and more expensive production costs, oil will not return to its former high prices. Continuing price increases beyond these high prices can be expected and are indeed inevitable in terms of reducing supply and increased demand. While there are possibilities for the development and use of biofuels, these are also likely to be much more expensive than present fuel prices and to be limited in availability. It appears likely that electric vehicles will become available. Because of increasing liquid fuel prices there will be dramatic changes in the way goods and people move about. The economic benefits of rail, coastal shipping and public transport will inevitably become the norm and planning for these needs to take place urgently.
3 Corridors versus roads ? We believe that there will always be a need for transport corridors for long term future mobility, that include adequate bridging etc. However a corridor is not synonymous with solely a roadway route. As mode shifts become more evident such corridors will have valuable alternative or multiple uses.
4 Fuel Prices – The fuel price spike of 2008 resulted in observable road de-congestion and greater acceptance of public transport. We believe that the price rise was associated with an upward trend in oil prices recognising ‘peak oil’ concepts. The inevitable drop in demand as oil prices resume their upward trend could make existing roading investments run more smoothly, but there should also be a serious re-evaluation of the congestion problems as perceived pre-2008 and as forecasted over the lifetime of new investments.
There is a danger that reduced traffic due to increased fuel costs will render new road capacity extra to requirements. Funding that could have been used to provide alternative modes will have been used up in creating stranded assets.
5 Revised Modelling and Design – The transport models that were used to develop current road building projects used assumed traffic growth rates based on the economy and fuel prices of earlier years. New modelling and analysis must be done based on new, more current trends and information.
6 Innovation – New ideas are born out of need for change and challenged thinking. Carrying on with investment plans when the fundamentals have changed is not the best way to stimulate economic growth. Investment in research is the key. Training of practitioners and funding for transport planning should be increasing dramatically to meet the challenges of economic growth within the realities of the world economic environment.
7 Public Transport – Two critical functions of Public Transport also align with priorities of national economic growth. The two critical functions are alleviating congestion on roads and providing transport access to economic activities for people who can’t use or afford personal automobile transport. The proportion of the population in this category will inevitably increase as ‘peak oil’ starts to take effect. Integrated, quality designed and operated Public Transport should be understood to be a vital part of the national transport infrastructure. Funding for Public Transport should be increased markedly, but with the important requirement of integrated modelling and design. NZ’s main cities and also major provincial towns must become resilient, vibrant local regional centres where public transport systems are the backbone and lifeblood of the economic activities.
8 Active Transport – The GPS takes the position that active modes and bike infrastructure do not fit with the priorities for national economic growth. This is at odds with the international experience. The most profitable and economically viable developments in cities across Australasia, the Americas and Europe in the past ten years have been urban “re-developments” where urban villages and pedestrian common and commercial spaces are integrated with housing and service centres. The property values and commercial activity of these re-development areas has increased during the recent fuel price spike and economic down-turn. Active transport infrastructure that is “imposed” on personal automobile architecture is indeed largely wasted effort. The GPS should actually be increasing the walking and biking-related funding dramatically, but incorporating it with urban re-development requirements.
9 Rail and Sea Freight – The lack of spending on what is potentially the greatest opportunity for efficiency improvement in the nation is negligent. The statement that 80% of current freight in New Zealand is shipped by road is a flawed premise to the argument for neglecting the rail system. Of course the economic factors of the past several decades have led to this condition. Those conditions are changing. The funding for rail and sea freight (and passenger transport) should be dramatically increased until a far greater proportion of freight is moved off the road at least as far as inter-urban transport and long distance bulk haulage is concerned. There is no country in the world with an effective rail network that wishes they had a system like New Zealand’s where the only real freight option is the road!
10 Regional Air Transport
Regional aviation, like all air transport, is in a parlous state, kept viable by the recent fall in oil prices. It cannot be relied upon for either long term public transport or for moving freight.
11 Summary – It may seem efficient to direct investment to easing congestion on national roads in the short term with historical growth patterns in mind because of assumed travel time savings, and optimal fuel consumption. But it would not be a prudent or robust risk based planning approach if it does not take into account the rational concerns highlighted by the International Energy Agency, by building resilience into the transport system and thereby reducing system vulnerability to widely anticipated and by now often experienced liquid fuel supply shocks. We urge the Government to take a less hasty and single minded approach to the completion of the GPS and take time to consider the balance of the inherent risks and vulnerabilities of the planned investment profile. Closer examination may find that the labour component is relatively small in comparison with expenditures on materials, like bitumen or concrete, and heavy construction equipment.
On behalf of Engineers for Social Responsibility and Sustainable Energy Forum
John La Roche
National Secretary Engineers for Social Responsibility
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